Tuesday, January 24 the nominations for the 89^th Academy Awards (otherwise known as the Oscars) were made available to the public. While La La Land admittedly stole the show at the Golden Globes some weeks before, the competition for will be tense with contenders such as Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea vying for the Hollywood’s Holy Grail: Best Picture at the Oscars.

Well that’s the big question, isn’t it? Who’s going home with the gold? According to Time Magazine, a recent survey revealed “…a two-thirds majority predicting that La La Land will triumph, though only 20% think it deserves to.” This is hardly surprising.

Now, we all know that La La Land earned a great deal of hype over the last few weeks since its initial release. Maybe we’ve been so desperate for another Mamma Mia that we’ve latched onto the next closest thing. While the screenplay was certainly touching, the soundtrack was nothing to envy. Touches of that dearly missed jazz club tune were sprinkled here and there, yet the main scores simply failed to impress- and mind you, this was primarily a musical. While Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone slipped into their characters’ shoes quiet easily, many agree that more than a handful of other actresses could have stepped into Miss Stone’s role just as effortlessly and perhaps even offering more of that whimsical pizzazz we were looking for; although, one must admit the role itself was unremarkably replaceable and more than a tad bit cliché. Really, nobody actually started caring about her until after her big failure at the playhouse, which occurred probably a little more than halfway through the film. And let’s be honest: the struggle of two aspiring artists, all the sacrifices and failures included, would generally be perceived as a relatable and empathetic plot if it were not for the cookie cutter, fairy tale ending. Everyone’s dreams come true, right? They live happily ever after, ride off into the sunset, and throw some pixie dust in the air for good measure. Now compare that to Fences’ depiction of an African American, working class family tearing apart at the seams as a hard-pressed father struggles to overcome his own cynicism while, in a brutally backwards backlash, unknowingly deprives his family of the joys robbed of him in the distant past. Sure, maybe La La Land was the feel-good movie of the year, but Best Picture? Sorry, that Oscar ain’t shining just for you.

Well what about Best Actor and Best Actress? Do either halves of the dynamic duo stand a chance? Unlikely. After seeing Denzel Washington’s powerful portrayal of Troy Maxson in Fences, I doubt Gosling’s going to be making any “thank you” speeches. Many critics are favoring Casey Affleck for his role in Manchester by the Sea as well. As for Stone, her rivals do not have an abundant supply of particularly breathtaking roles, but she faces film legend Meryl Streep. Let’s see how that goes.

Other categories appear to be more tightly matched. As far as Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Director, and Best Supporting Actress are concerned, more than half of the nominees in each category appear equally capable of taking home that little golden man.

While critics and common folk continue to bicker, no one will be certain of anything until the night of. So everybody tune your TVs (or tablets…or MacBooks…or even smartphones now I guess) in on Sunday, February 26 for live results.